Not an election but selection by the Army: Security expert Qamar Agha on Pakistan polls

Pakistan is going to democratically elect its next government on July 25.

No prime minister in Pakistan's history has ever completed a full five-year term in office.

This year, Pakistan's general elections will be historical because this will be the second successive smooth transition of power from a democratically elected government to another democratic government through elections.

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We caught up with Qamar Agha, an expert on Pakistan affairs, to ask him about the likely effect of the Pakistan elections on India.

WION: Pakistan is going to elect its next democratic government. You once called Pakistan a failed state, do you still believe that?

Qamar Agha: Of course, it is and now it's moving towards chaos and anarchy, more violence will take place. The situation is deteriorating and it's going beyond control.

WION: There have been allegations of pre-poll rigging being conducted by judiciary, military and intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of PTI and against PML-N. Do you think it is a fair election?

Qamar Agha: No it's not, it's already rigged. It's not an election, it’s selection. But despite these things, the hardcore Islamic parties are not going to get more than 4-5 seat, they are thoroughly exposed and the situation has weakened for Imran's PTI. They are also not picking up.

WION: This year, for the second time in the history of Pakistan, a civilian government has completed its full term without being toppled by the military or brought down by any crisis. Don't you think it is a success for democratic reforms in Pakistan?

Qamar Agha: No it's not. It’s now difficult for the army to stage a coup due to many reasons. That's why they are trying to hide behind the government. A democratic government will work as a proxy of Pakistan army.

WION: Imran has been accused of indirectly supporting Taliban's 'holy war'. Do you think India going to face a more aggressive nexus of ISI, Pak army and Taliban if Imran comes to power?

Qamar Agha: It is quite possible. The situation is bad in Afghanistan. Taliban has occupied 40 per cent of its territory. The US has not been able to suppress them and ISIS is also gaining ground in Afghanistan, so it's going to be a tough time ahead for India. With Imran Khan coming to power the situation will deteriorate. But the Indian Army is fully capable of handling these situations.

WION: In the past, you said that Pakistan has got no bargaining power, either with America or India on the issue of Kashmir. Do you still believe that?

Qamar Agha: Yes, of course. Pakistan is a very isolated country now with no active allies. They are totally dependent on China for any kind of international help, a country which alone cannot save them.

WION: With China having full influence in internal Pakistan economy via CPEC, do you think it will be a challenge for India to maintain a good economic relation with Pakistan?

Qamar Agha: This is what Nawaz Sharif wanted. He believed that India and Pakistan should have good trade relations like India and China have.

I don't think Imran will follow suit. Pakistani Army is extremely Talibanised now and this means hatred towards India. These forces are commanding the army. And Talibanisation has reached to its peak now.

WION: Apart from three major parties of Pakistan, MQM also has a stronghold in Karachi and Sindh. Your views on them.

Qamar Agha: They have weakened over the years. But they can remain in the mainstream only by being an ally to the major parties.